Olive trees grown in Andalusia, Spain since Roman Empire times are very well suited for the Andalusian climate.

Heat and drought are common during summers and Olive trees are resistant to it.

The winters being cold, with temperatures rarely dipping below −8°C, the tree’s lower tolerance limit.

Olive trees also need a bit of a chill during winter to flower during spring, a physiological requirement known as vernalization.

Recently a research was made using an algorithm based computer method known as Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) (used to predict which areas are suitable for the presence of a certain species based on environmental features) to study the response of olive plantations to climate change.

SDM in combination with high-resolution climate change projections and extremely detailed satellite imagery, the future evolution of the most common olive varieties could be predicted.

The researchers have the GPS coordinates of each olive tree and its specific variety, and can relate them with layers of future environmental conditions. They can correlate each tree’s specific location with its predicted levels of precipitation, temperature, evaporation, and so on.

It was found that the most important factor that will reduce olive production is rainfall reduction and loss of soil humidity.

Five of eight Andalusian provinces were predicted to lose olive production, with reductions in suitable land for olive production of 29% in Seville, 25% in Cadiz, and a lesser proportion in other regions.

It was also found that some mountain areas will become better suited for growing olive trees, as these usually colder regions will become more temperate. However, these areas are, for the most part, natural reserves or currently occupied by other crops.